Challenge assumptions, detect consensus traps, stress-test recommendations
Increase Comm Auto rates +7%
3.2Grow cyber allocation to 10%
6.5Exit FL residential property
4.8Acquire specialty MGA
7.1Increase retention to $15M
5.5Expand digital distribution
4.2Reserve strengthen GL +$25M
3.8Enter excess casualty market
8.2Soft landing in property cat pricing
7.2/10Conventional View
Property rates will moderate 5-10%
Contrarian View
Reinsurance tightening could trigger secondary hardening wave
GL reserve stability
6.8/10Conventional View
Social inflation has peaked
Contrarian View
Nuclear verdicts accelerating — 2024 verdicts up 35% YoY
Cyber profitability sustainable
8.5/10Conventional View
Loss ratios stabilizing below 85%
Contrarian View
Systemic cyber event has 12% annual probability, would destroy market
Workers comp will stay soft
5.1/10Conventional View
Medical costs moderate, frequency declining
Contrarian View
Long-COVID claims emerging with 3-5 year tail
| Event | Lesson | Relevance to Us | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Executive Life Failure (1991) | Concentrated junk bond portfolio, ignored diversification | Concentration risk in any single line | 6.5 |
| Reliance Group Collapse (2001) | Aggressive growth without adequate reserves | Growth targets must align with reserve adequacy | 7.2 |
| AIG Near-Failure (2008) | Derivatives exposure hidden from core insurance ops | Second-order effects of financial engineering | 5.8 |
| Heritage Insurance (2022) | Over-concentration in FL property with inadequate reinsurance | Direct parallel to current property allocation | 8.1 |