Current hardening signal in commercial auto may be lagging. Submission data suggests rate adequacy is approaching equilibrium. Historical analog: 2015 Q3 false hardening signal. Fragility score: 6.2/10.

Concentration risk in commercial property at 28% of book exceeds peer median of 22%. If Cat 5 Florida event occurs, capital position drops below BCAR 280 threshold.

Competitor X’s GL reserve strengthening may signal broader market adverse development. Consensus view of stable GL loss trends could be a trap.