Per-line cycle position, velocity, and signal strength
Position
10.1
Phase
Hardening
Velocity
+0.30/q
Confidence
88%
Premium: $324M
Position
8.4
Phase
Hardening
Velocity
+0.15/q
Confidence
82%
Premium: $396M
Position
9.7
Phase
Hardening
Velocity
-0.20/q
Confidence
75%
Premium: $504M
Position
6.2
Phase
Soft
Velocity
+0.10/q
Confidence
90%
Premium: $270M
Position
11.0
Phase
Hard
Velocity
-0.10/q
Confidence
65%
Premium: $126M
Position
7.5
Phase
Hardening
Velocity
+0.20/q
Confidence
78%
Premium: $108M
Position
9.2
Phase
Hardening
Velocity
+0.05/q
Confidence
72%
Premium: $72M
| Period | Similarity | Lines | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2015 | 87% | Property, Comm Auto | Hard market peaked Q1 2016, followed by 18-month softening |
| Q1 2019 | 74% | GL, Umbrella | Hardening continued 12 months, +15% rate increases achieved |
| Q4 2005 | 71% | Property, Reinsurance | Post-Katrina hard market lasted 8 quarters |
| Q2 2012 | 68% | Workers Comp | False hardening signal — soft conditions persisted |