Game-theory capital allocation modeling competitor responses
RBC drops to 394%, +12.5% IRR
RBC drops to 400%, shareholder goodwill
RBC 404%, +15.2% IRR, CR improves 0.8pts
RBC 404%, +14.1% IRR, diversification benefit
RBC 367%, +18.5% IRR if integration succeeds
RBC 340%, scale benefit, integration risk high
| Option | Amount ($M) | IRR (%) | Risk | Timeline | RBC Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share Buyback | $75 | 12.5% | low | Q1-Q2 2026 | -18pts |
| Special Dividend | $50 | -- | low | Q2 2026 | -12pts |
| Organic Growth | $120 | 15.2% | medium | 2026-2027 | -8pts |
| M&A — Specialty | $200 | 18.5% | high | 2026-2028 | -45pts |
Match rate increases in Comm Auto
Exit Florida Property
Acquire specialty MGA
Increase GL reserves